Multitasking article review

In Douglas Merrill's Forbes article titled â€Å"Why Multitasking Doesn't Work†, the contributing author makes various statements on the scenario-based appropriateness of multitasking. It is the opinion of the author that multitasking during simple, menial tasks such as folding clothes and speaking on the phone does not require a high order of mental capacity to execute; therefore, it is acceptable to multicast when engaging in these activities.On the flip side, the author argues that hen tasks require brain engage and the goal is for long term memory capture, then multitasking does not allow short term memory to engage and therefore has no opportunity to commit to long term memory. The author also recounted a story of while employed at Google, many workers employed laptops during meetings to accomplish other work tasks during meeting times. This slowly led to the realization that those on their laptops diminished the effectiveness of the meetings due to lack of attention and engagement.Soon the company began a strategy of laptop free tenting zones. The author's ultimate message is that multitasking is not conducive to a successful work environment and has many potential dangers. I tend to agree with the author. Although I am not absent from engaging in multitasking in the workplace, I can say that my quality of work and the confidence in my work increases dramatically when I am allowed the luxury of focused time and effort. It is clear that Google identified that multitasking was a hindrance to the success of business, at least as it pertains to meetings.The article did not offer rather support even though Google did change the work place rules to address this issue. While the article does remain tacit on other multitasking observances and also states that only a portion of meetings were deemed laptop free, the reader cannot assume either way that Google expects or categorically prohibits multitasking in the workplace. In Christine Rose's The New Atlant is article titled â€Å"The Myth of Multitasking†, the author commits to a compelling argument against multitasking mostly supported by clinical research and cultural references.Her article begins with a Lord in the sass's offering advice via a letter to his son. The letter extols the virtue of the ability to focus and is the true mark of intelligence. The author then offers clinical information through functional MR. scans that details the fundamental flaws in learning through multitasking by noting the action of certain portions of the brain. Throughout the article, Rosen refers to multitasking as a sort of Adult Attention Disorder. She draws on work completed by DRP.Edward Hallowed who coined the affects of multitasking as Attention Deficit Trait† (ADD) and further describes ADD as â€Å"purely a response to the hyperkinetic environment in which we live†. Rosen concludes the article with a question. Will humans simply adapt to the reality of multitasking by ma king it a part of our daily lives despite the repercussions? If so, humans may reap the rewards of information but may not realize the related wisdom. I also agree with this author. Her argument is clear and supported culturally and scientifically. Her logical discussion of the effects of multitasking are reasonable and ell laid out.The author indicates that the work environment has changed by humans willingly adapting a less than favorable learning environment that may cost businesses through lost productivity. Through the author's argument, I believe that she is implying that it is a general expectation from manager's that multitasking is to be utilized to accomplish work tasks. I have many years of work experience and school under my belt. My experience with multitasking has been variable. At times, I am highly effective multitasking when the task is transactional.I can switch back and forth between many tasks with little consequence. However when high order thinking is required, I. E. Analyzing data, creating presentations, reading course materials, etc. , I find I am much more successful when I am afforded the opportunity to focus one task and then move on to the next. Sometimes after significant effort, I may switch work/school topics to give my mind a rest and pick up on another topic, but I would hardly refer to this as multitasking but rather strategic maidenhair. When I am required to multicast at work, I do find it rather stressful.My capacities to think clearly, mitigate issues, and communicate effectively are greatly reduced. I oftentimes find myself mentally frustrated after long periods of multitasking and my ability to pivot to other tasks is greatly diminished. At times, this has had a serious, negative impact on my work performance. For instance, once I was juggling so many tasks that when a superior had a time-sensitive data request I forgot to record the need and subsequently did not provide the data. I did not even occur to me by day end t hat I had not accomplished this task.The next day, my superior angrily appeared at my desk telling me to forget the data request since a meeting to discuss the data had already taken place. I obviously felt disappointed in myself and apologized to the superior. The most critical thing a supervisor can do to lead and manage employees in a multitasking environment is to teach employees how to prioritize and give them the latitude to push back on requests and clarify timeliness. If an employee can effectively prioritize his/her workload, then there may be a less of a need for a litigating approach as the employee tackles a task at a time in order of their importance.

Improving Patient Identification With Barcode Health And Social Care Essay

Today ‘s engineering affects the bringing of attention and patient safety in different health care puting. Due to the increasing mistakes in the health care environment, the Joint Commission and other health care organisations mandated ways to better proper and safer patient designation. The usage of saloon codification scanning engineering gave a large spring of bettering mistakes in the healthcare field. Nowadays, the barcode scanning can be seen in patient ‘ wristbands, medical records and laboratory faux pass or requisitions. With this turning engineering, a little pilot survey utilizing barcode scanning was initiated in an ICU scene in a local infirmary. The barcode scanning was used to accurately and expeditiously place patients when taking blood glucose fingerstick at the bedside. This survey will demo how it improves the truth and efficiency in executing the undertaking. Even at the terminal, there are defects that were identified in the survey. There is a two per centum mistake in scanning the barcode wristband in the survey. But the countries of betterment were identified. The bedside nurse necessitate to verify the medical record figure scanned and must fit what is in the armband. With this technique, 87.5 % of the bedside nurse find this technique a much accurate and efficient in taking blood sugar fingerstick in the ICU scene. The nurses besides need to mensurate its efficiency in placing patients right utilizing barcode scanning technique. Time is measured between manually come ining MRN versus scanning a barcoded wristband. It is found that 100 % of the eight bedside nurses find it more faster technique than manually come ining the MRN in the Surestep glucometer.IntroductionPatient safety encompasses bar of mistakes and errors of action and judgement, doing mistakes seeable and extenuating the effects of mistake. â€Å" In 1997, a survey of 1,000 hospitalized patients in a big instruction infirmary found 177 of these patients receive d inappropriate attention that resulted in serious inauspicious events † ( Barach, 2003 ) . It is a turning grounds of the figure of medical mistakes throughout the health care system in the United States and this became a signal to the health care system that betterment in patient safety and bringing of attention is needed with the usage of engineering. As we all know, engineering plays an of import function in bettering the bringing of attention in any hospital scenes. There had been an increasing job in the health care environment when it comes with medicine mistake. It is going a serious public wellness menace. Harmonizing to a landmark 1999 Institute of Medicine study, between 44,000 and 98,000 Americans die yearly due to medical errors ( Kohn, et Al ) . As portion of its on-going attempts and duty to better patient safety, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ( FDA ) ruled on April 4, 2004, to do barcodes compulsory on the labels of 1000s of human medicines and biological merchandises by the twelvemonth 2006 † ( Kohn, et. Al ) . The FDA expected that the opinion will assist forestall about 500,000 inauspicious events and transfusion mistakes over the 20 old ages that follow, at a cost nest eggs of $ 93 billion. Although the opinion makes the National Drug Code ( NDC ) -format barcodes compulsory merely on medicine packaging produced by drug providers, there is hope that this policy and recommendation will convey approximately technological promotions in prescription ordination, drug dispensing, and medicine disposal across all weaponries of the state ‘s wellness attention sys tem. â€Å" A critical method for suppliers of attention to cut down inauspicious events associated with medicine mistakes is to concentrate on the ways of bettering the system of presenting attention. In order to prolong and better upon established degree of attention, it is critical that wellness attention installations evaluate options to incorporate information systems as a mechanisms to extinguish preventable medicine mistakes † ( Patel, 2004 ) and even procedural mistakes such as look intoing blood sugar at the bedside. As we can see the usage of medicine barcode engineering grows, the wellness attention establishments will necessitate to be cognizant of related alterations in accreditation and conformity policies. These are of import and necessary to follow within several regulative organisations, including the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations ( JCAHO ) and the National Committee for Quality Assurance ( NCQA ) .The Support of the health care accreditation and other organisationsUnder the conditions of The Joint Commission ( antecedently JCAHO ) and other accreditations, the heathcare organisation is now faced with increasing force per unit area to proactively look and turn to medical mistakes that can go on in any wellness attention scenes. In July 2002, the Joint Commission called national attending to the basic beginning of mistake by set uping right patient designation as one of the six National Patient Goals of 2002 and â€Å" by January 2004 would impact the organisation ‘s accreditation and position. The ends included more accurate patient designation, enhanced communicating among wellness attention suppliers, decrease or riddance of wrong-site, wrong-patient, and incorrect process surgeries, and betterments to identify equipment such as clinical dismay systems † ( Mello, M. , Kelly & A ; Brennan, T. , 2005 ) . This accreditation organic structure has given accent on medical disposal, it is besides of import in any other facets of patient attention bringing. They support the proper designation and safe bringing of attention in different countries and activities in healthcare scenes.Taking Technology with Patient Safety and SecurityPatient security is further enhanced with engineering. It is besides of import to include and place staff employees that are administrating medicines, trials, or processs. These non merely offer an of import ( and clip salvaging ) record of the provider/patient interaction, but they besides provide an excess cheque to assist avoid mistakes or errors. Much of the of import engineering to accomplish these consequences already exists. Even more is in development-especially as infirmaries move toward the electronic medical record and its particular consideration. Again, infirmaries and other wellness attention scenes now are mandated by jurisprudence to be compliant with the HIPAA jurisprudence and electronic medical information. But the world remains: infirmaries must equilibrate these chances with bottom line fiscal considerations. Finding the solution will necessitate careful choice of a package supplier who can run into current and future demands of the provider-who will spouse with the supplier for today and the hereafter. The picks environing this chance will change wider but the bets have ne'er been higher or the wagess for patient safety are much more compelling. What is the current pattern? â€Å" Patient safety and medicine disposal safety are of import infirmary precedences. General enterprises designed to better safety include following a institutional civilization conducive to safe patterns, optimising substructure and clinical patterns to take beginnings of mistakes and analyzing mistakes that occur to find the beginning and possible ways to forestall mistakes † ( Cumming, et. al. , 2005 ) . Before and even until now, nurses are used of visually look intoing the medical specialty and following the five patients ‘ right. Today ‘s nursing working force is burdened with increasing larger patients ‘ tonss and much more sicker and higher sharp-sightedness patient degrees than of all time before together with multiple co-morbidities. Everyone agrees that guaranting patient safety is a top precedence for health care suppliers. The first measure lies in accurately placing the patient. Every practicing nurse is taught that the first precaution against medical mistake or positive patient designation by looking at the 5 rights: right medicine, right clip, right patient, right dosage and right path. This sounds easy but frequently are missed and doing an mistake. Technology is supplying some outstanding progresss in this country, but more demands to be done. Balancing the demand for patient privateness and security nowadayss some particular challenges, but the two truly do work in concert-when a supplier uses a system that will suit and turn with its turning demands. Bar-coded wristbands are most good when establishments such as infirmaries assign barcodes to their merchandise such as medicine, blood merchandises, research lab trials and processs. Patients traditionally receive the all important wristband during the admittances procedure. Again, a cost-efficient solution that can suit saloon coded wristbands can assist in accurately identify patients in supplying patient attention in the infirmary scene. Increasingly, suppliers are seeing the bar-coded carpus set as an of import patient safety cheque: scanning the set will assist guarantee right patient designation for medicine disposal, lab work, transfusions, proving and other processs.The Bar Coding TechniqueBar codification engineerings are now being utilized for other wellness attention applications outside of medicine disposal. The saloon codification was found in 1974 and was used ab initio in the nutrient industry. It was in 1991 when the first saloon codification appeared in a medicine b undle. â€Å" In 2004, the FDA issued a concluding regulation necessitating saloon codifications on most prescription and non prescription drugs normally used in the infirmary to cut down the hazard of medicine mistakes † ( Churchill, 2005 ) . Bar coding engineering can efficaciously look at medicines in two degrees. â€Å" First, the usage of saloon codifications on medicine packaging can guarantee appropriate usage of medicines. Second, saloon codifications can be used as alone patient identifiers † ( Patel, 2004 ) to patients. Bar-code enabled bedside nurses to decently corroborate patient designation and accurately execute bedside undertakings from medicine disposal, lab work and every bit simple as fingerstick cheque at the bedside. This will enable the nurse to verify the right patient, right medicine, right process, and right blood glucose fingerstick cheque. In kernel, â€Å" barcode engineering is a replacing for a traditional keyboard informations entry. It requires a transition of an identifier to a symbolic representation-the barcode-that can so be printed on, or affix to, an point, later read by a light beginning and fed into a computing machine † ( Grotting, et Al, 2002 ) . Standard barcodes are like the 1s we see in food market shops or like our licence home bases.The Advantages of Barcode ScaningThe usage of barcode engineering brings a figure of valuable advantages to the health care environment. Bar codification scanning is much more accurate than the human oculus or the flick of a finger. â€Å" Trials have shown that barcoded information has an truth rate of 1 mistake per 10,000,000 characters. Compare that to identify board entry mistake rate of 1 mistake per 100 characters. † ( Grotting, et Al, 2002 ) . The barcode scanning engineering gives chance to diminish or forestall mistakes in garnering informations while executing it in a fraction of a clip alternatively of making things manually. Another advantage is its easiness of usage. Participants can get the hang the equipment in shorter sum of clip. It besides accrued through a standardisation of codifications or patterns that is a good developed engineering. The barcode engineering gets better every clip and provides truth and efficiency. It is believed that implementing this technique in the wellness attention puting can supply fiscal benefits in add-on to clinical results. There will be preventable longer length of stay and lessening cost in the infirmary stay. With this technique, â€Å" 1000000s of dollars per twelvemonth, non including malpractice costs, readmissions and judicial proceeding costs, or the costs of hurts to patients ( Grotting, et Al, 2002 ) † will be saved. Litigation entirely can be financially burthening to the infirmary. â€Å" On norm, jury awards for medicine mistakes reached $ 636,844 per award in 2000 † ( Jury Verdict Research Group, 2000 ) .Factors that affects the Barcode ScanningThere factors that affects engineering such as barcode scanning. The detector factors, human factors, system architecture factors are some of the factors and can go challenges. For sensor factors or a barcode scanner, one should look at the design. Every detector is identified by a baseline measuring mistake that can be portion in the technology, design, type and intent of the detector. It is dependent upon the preciseness and truth of it. It is needed to guarantee that high quality detector informations and equipment is used to present a all right preciseness and truth. It is of import to see that we have to utilize for the medical demands of the patients in the health care puting. The quality of industry demands to reflect the trust in the detector fabrication procedure. Besides, every merchandise, every detector needs to be calibrated. It is common that overtime, any merchandise, will diminish its truth. Therefore, it needs to be calibrated. The detector and merchandise must be dependable when in usage. Any wellness monitoring system involves human participants. This can be the patient, health professional or wellness attention suppliers such as nurses. It is necessary for every participant to transport out specific functions in utilizing new equipment. The participants need to swear and hold assurance on the new equipment for it to go successful. They should believe on its â€Å" individuality ( genuineness ) , duty ( executing the function when expected ) , competency ( executing the function right ) , and motive ( willingness to execute the function ) † ( Sriram, et. Al, 2002 ) . Since there are a batch of policies that a infirmary or wellness attention puting to follow with, one should see that wellness information are sensitive. Every wellness attention supplier whether they are physicians or nurses are required to follow with HIPAA privateness policies. Therefore, a system should guarantee that no leak sing patient information will go on and must be dependable. It should non be weak that could interrupt healthcare information. It is of import to see its unity and exposures.The Barcode Pilot Study in ICU PutingBing a quality betterment representative of our unit, I was able to place some lacks in the inaccuracy in placing patients during bedside blood sugar monitoring. It was two old ages ago when bedside intensive attention unit nurses are still come ining medical record figure in the Surestep glucometer to accurately place patients. It gave an thought to make a little undertaking for the unit. Not all infirmaries are utilizing saloon codifications in plac ing their patients. It was besides two old ages ago when the infirmary where I am working started saloon codifications in patient armbands to increase proper designation of patients particularly in executing lab trial. This is a first measure in bettering in accurately placing patients in our infirmary. I have worked in other infirmaries and most of the infirmaries I ‘ve worked at are utilizing a glucometer that scans the barcodes in the patient ‘s armbands. The glucometer that was used in the other scenes are the same glucometer used in my infirmary. Therefore, I started a little undertaking in the Surgical Intensive Care Unit to fly a barcode scanning in obtaining blood sugar fingerstick to our intensive attention unit patient population.The Objective of the StudyFirst, I discussed with my co-Shared Governance members about the thought. I have presented to them why I am making the undertaking. This undertaking will increase the truth and efficiency of obtaining blood g lucose fingerstick at the bedside. The patient populations we are looking at are patient with Diabetic Ketoacidosis and Open Hearts patients. Both of these populations require an every one hr fingerstick. With the current process we have in the ICU, the bedside nurses are still manually come ining the medical record figure of the patient whenever a blood sugar fingerstick is needed. The sum of clip and the sum of mistake is higher when the bedside nurses are making this. After discoursing the undertaking with the Shared Governance of the unit and our nurse director and got their consensus, I started looking at how to roll up the information.Data Collection of the UndertakingThere will be two portion of the survey: measurement truth and mensurating efficiency. I compared the old protocol of taking blood glucose fingerstick and wrote a different protocol for the undertaking. This will assist the ICU nurses follow the instructions ( see attachment # 1 ) . I used a little pilot survey t hat can roll up 50 informations. The information will be within one hebdomad or until 50 informations are collected. The participants will come in in the generated templet for the survey ( see attachment # 2 ) . The end is to hold 50 samples of MRN barcode scanning during fingerstick cheques. The armband of the patient has a preprinted barcodes. This can be utilized in the undertaking. There is no excess cost for developing a barcoded wristband. It is already in the infirmary acknowledging system of a patient ; hence, we will be utilizing this for the undertaking. There will be no added cost to the budget of the unit. The participants, all nurses of the displacement was given instructions and inservice of the undertaking. They will foremost do certain the patient is right campaigner for the survey. They can be the Diabetic Ketoacidosis ( DKA ) and unfastened bosom patients. Both of this population requires every hr fingerstick because of the insulin trickle that is running.Surveying the Bedside NursesAfter roll uping 50 informations for the undertaking, a study was given to every participant. It asked for different things: What type of patient population used? Was the usage of saloon codification scanning much more efficient that the manually come ining MRN? Was the usage of saloon pod scanning much more accurate in placing patients that manually come ining MRN? Would you urge utilizing this new method than the old one? ( See Attachment # 3 )MethodologyI will look at garnering 50 informations from the bedside nurses. Besides, I will be supplying a study signifier for the bedside nurse to compare t he current process versus the new barcode scanning technique ( see attachment # 3 ) . There will be no extra cost for purchasing the equipment to make the undertaking. The glucometer, Surestep, has a capableness of barcode scanning. Therefore, the excess characteristic of the equipment is already in the machine and merely necessitate to be utilized to execute this little undertaking. The undertaking will run for a hebdomad get downing February 24th until 50 informations is collected. All bedside nurses on all displacements were inserviced in the entrance undertaking. It was discussed with them what patient population that can be portion of the survey. Merely the unfastened bosom patients and Diabetic Ketoacidosis are the patient population allowed at this clip because of their every hr fingerstick. They were instructed that that every patients who participated in this survey must hold a barcoded wristband. They besides need to do certain that there is imprinted medical record figure ( MRN ) on it. The wristbands must non hold any wear or rupture prior to the scanning. If they find that any of the wristbands has any mark of wear or tear, they were asked to replace them. This will forestall any inaccurate consequences that can impact the survey.Scaning the Patient and Completing Survey FormEach operator will acquire a templet to come in the consequence of the surve y ( see Attachment # 2 ) . They will foremost set the day of the month, clip, operator ‘s initial, existent MRN, scanned MRN, and enter YES or NO if the scanned MRN matched the imprinted MRN. If non, they will necessitate to reiterate the process, but must go forth a remark how many times it scanned falsely. This aggregation will go on until 50 informations is collected. Every bedside nurse ( operator ) must finish the study signifier at the terminal of their displacement. All the signifiers will be placed in an envelope provided.Analysis of the UndertakingThe undertaking ran from February 24 until March 2. It was about a hebdomad of proving 50 barcode scanning of armbands anterior taking blood glucose fingerstick. With the 50 informations collected and compared with manually entered MRN and saloon codification scanned, one information did non scan the MRN right. It was at the 2nd scan when the scanned barcode matched the imprinted barcode in the patient ‘s wristband. Therefore, there was a two per centum opportunity of scanning a barcoded wristband with inaccurate MRN. The operator was asked if there is any tear or ill-defined barcode in the armband of the patient. The operator stated that there was no tear or ill-defined barcodes in the wristband. What caused this inaccuracy? There were entire of eight bedside nurses ( operator ) in making this undertaking. All of the bedside nurses completed the study. Here is the dislocation of their consequences: 100 % of the 50 informations collected has barcoded wristbands with the same MRN that is imprinted, 25 % of the patient population was an unfastened bosom patients and the 75 % was Diabetic Ketoacidosis patient, 7 out of 8 bedside nurses felt that it is still accurate to barcode scan the MRN, 8 out of 8 bedside nurses felt that it is faster to scan the MRN than manually come ining it, in conclusion, 8 out of 8 nurses want to urge this new barcode scanning technique in come ining the MRN than manually come ining every individual figure in the machine. Even with the one mistake from the 50 informations collected, there was a back up program for it. The bedside nurse still needs to compare the scanned MRN with the patient ‘s wristband to guarantee the proper patient designation during the simple blood glucose monitoring at the bedside.Credence of the UndertakingThe undertaking was successful because of the willingness of the nurses to be involved in the survey. They do non hold to travel through a long preparation to utilize the equipment. They are familiar with the glucometer. Sometimes deficiency of engagement and involvement from the participants can add to the defect of the survey. â€Å" We learned that prosecuting nurses early helps them to avoid inauspicious incidents and engineering related emphasis † ( Weckman, H. , & A ; Janzen, S. , 2009 ) . These nurses are first-class beginning of thoughts and suggestions on how to better any portion of the procedure. It is believed that â€Å" careful hearing to the nurse s ‘ remarks was crucialaˆÂ ¦because the engineering alterations in pattern have the possible to make a ripple consequence in other facets of their work flow † ( Weckman, H. , & A ; Janzen, S. , 2009 ) . The Surgical Intensive Unit accepted this new barcode scanning technique in come ining MRN in the Surestep glucometer. They felt that it is accurate and faster in come ining MRN comparison in utilizing their fingertips. The other unit started to inquire if they can use the technique to their unit, based on the infirmary ‘s policy, it needed to be approved by the research lab forces who are assigned in garnering informations for the glucometer. I presented the undertaking to her and she rejected the undertaking to be shared to the other unit. She said that there is a high per centum of mistake that can go on. It is 10 times more blood glucose fingerstick that is taken daily in the infirmary. If there is a two per centum mistake, it will hold an equivalent of 10 inaccurate MRN scanned. This is merely a day-to-day blood glucose monitoring. What more if is translated to monthly and annually? They wanted to name the seller if the wristband barcode is the right barcode for the glucom eter. There are different sizes and formats of barcoding and his must be one of the insufficiencies of the technique. Even with the rejection of the research lab forces to hold it dispersed in other unit, the nurses in the Surgical ICU are satisfied with the new technique. Therefore, the barcode scanning technique was merely done in Surgical Intensive Unit with the blessing of the unit ‘s nurse director. The bedside nurses in this unit urge this and prefer to make this technique because it takes less clip than manually come ining them.DecisionProblems with scanning arose ab initio because the usage of multiple barcode formats, sizes and location. The quality of the barcode scanner reader can hold an impact on the truth of its usage. Is the quality of the printed barcoded wristband impacting its scanning capableness? It can besides be a human factor. Human factors can go on and go a barrier in the proper and successful execution of a undertaking. It can alter its truth in scann ing a medical record figure ( MRN ) . But the inquiry still exists is it better than the old technique? With the study consequences, 100 % of the bedside nurses prefer to transport out the new technique. They are cognizant of the mistake and defects in the system, but they learned that they need to verify the scanned MRN with the imprinted MRN in the patient ‘s wristband. In summing up, in implementing a barcode engineering truly helps in bettering healthcare bringing to our patients. Many of the infirmaries are now utilizing barcode scanning in the patient ‘s wristband, medicine disposal, laboratory trial and even little process such as blood sugar fingerstick. These betterments can consequences to improved satisfaction in the patients every bit good as the bedside nurses. All of us personally want safe wellness attention, and most assuredly we want to do certain that our patients have safe attention. Safe attention means a attention that is administered without mistakes and injury. Mistake or injury agencies anything that can hold a negative impact on the patient ‘s well being. Everyone deserves a quality attention. To me, it means excellence or has high criterions. Within this subject, we can state that safe and quality can be interchangeable. However, the accent is on safety and the end is to better our wellness attention bringing system.Managerial DeductionsHarmonizing to Richard Paoletti, manager of pharmaceutics services at Lancaster General Hospital, barcoding execution is non a stand-alone enterprise ; it is a cultural alteration ( Kaufman, 2008 ) . It is proven in an experimental survey in some infirmaries that it gives a cost economy of 1000000s of dollars to the organisations. The cost of the barcode scanning machines depends on the es tablishment size. The care, waiters, and standardization are needed to be considered when taking a new equipment or machine in any installation. For this undertaking, excess machines or stuffs are non needed because the Surestep glucometer has it capableness of scanning a barcode. The standardization of the machine can be sent to the seller. What will be the preparation cost? There will be a minimum preparation cost since this will go on at the existent bedside nursing attention for patients who are necessitating blood sugar monitoring. A voluntary will be mensurating the clip utilizing a stop watch during the survey. There is a minimum cost for this undertaking but will be â€Å" avoiding cost associated with handling patients who suffer from preventable medicine mistakes such as length of stay or increased intensive attention unit length of stay † ( Cummings, et. al. , 2005 ) . Barcode engineering will be a criterion of attention few old ages from now. Therefore, â€Å" infirmaries should get down be aftering, budgeting, measuring engineering and fixing infirmary substructure † ( Cummings, et. al. , 2005 ) in run intoing the demands in barcode engineering related to healthcare system.

Concession at Glastonbury Festival

Introduction Glastonbury festival Of Contemporary Performing Art is one of the most known music festivals in the world. The festival it self takes part in worthy farm which is a dairy farm during the year; is in the region of Somerset which is situated in southwest England. The festival from 1981 has been organised by the local farmer and site owner Michael Eavis (Martin, 2009). Micheal Eavis is also the owner of Glastonbury Festival LTD the company that is in charge of the organization and the distribution of the varies concessions around the event site. Philip m. , 2013) Since 2002 festival republic which is a company that consist in the merging of (live Nation and MCD) takes care of the managing the logistic, security, and 40% of the concessionary stakes in the festival. (stroke, 2013). Food and beverage stalls Concession for the stall and Glastonbury have a very different type of price depending on the size and what the stall his selling. There are two types of stall A typical se lls food and beverage and is set at ? 1000 per day out side the events cite. And 2500? f is inside the event cite. Also the owner of the stall must comply with the regulations regarding the waste management and water management. A Stand needs to do an investment of ? 4000 to have is stall with the right regulations. (Bodwin, 2008) But once the stands have given the concession the owner can make a very good amount of money. The concessions for the stand are all the same but generally speaking if your stand is more green, environmental and alternative, the cheaper the rent is going to be in could go down to ? 00 to non like a stall specialized in dairy farming products. (Murray, 2009) There are about 800 stalls, which they been release the concessions to sell their products during Glastonbury Festival. (Lee, 2010) The bars at Glastonbury Concert is organise by Workers Beer Company which is sponsor by Carlsberg the leasing that hey give to contribute to the festival is around ? 500. 00 0 (Wanddworthy, 2012) Goods and services stalls A type B stall sells any types of good and services that can be need it during the event. This can vary from Tabaco reseller, to Tend fixing ssistant, books, papers, gadgets, flags and alcohol. For this stands Festival republic is in charge on giving them specific rules and regulations regarding the Concessions. The standard price is also set from ? 1000 to a maximum of ? 3000 there is a option that the owner of the stall could undertake and is that to partner with one of the sponsors of Glastonbury like; Oxfam, Water Aid and green peace is to donate part of the stall money to there Couse and they will be ready to pay for there stall rent for all the event. Caravans inside Glastonbury festivalThe parking of the caravans is accepted but only on the out skirts of the event. Glastonbury festival LTD releases upon request a caravan concession but they need to follow specific criteria’s: Each person entering must have a weekend Festi val ticket holder. And this concession will only be release if the ticket older will sleep in the vehicles and have a fitted sleeping and cooking facilities. The cost of this special concession given to the caravans is of ? 85 for the entire event. There is a reduction of the price for physically challenged people.Which is ? 65 that is also valid for all the event time. Each car is allowed to have one car but there is an additional parking ticket of ? 20 for each car. (Philip m. , 2013) Pre Erected tend service Since Glastonbury festival LTD understands that camping is one of the most entertainment and exiting things of the festival. Not everybody would have a tend so they have release a concession to Argos to rent tends to who would wish to rent them. This is a very good opportunity for business for Argos but they need to pay to Glastonbury Festival ? 100. 00 in order to have the permission to erect there tends inside the camping cites. The ticket holders then they can easily rent a tend inside an Argos story or buy calling an hotline. The price for renting of the tend strictly depends on the occupancy of people Inside it. For a standard 2 person Cloud House is ? 300 for 5 nights and those are the most popular and they tend to sell out very quickly. Then there the choose of a 4 person bell ten which comes with a cost of ? 500. For the biggest tend that can hold 8 people inside which is a dome tent is ? 00 for 5 nights. Argos have about 7. 000 tends to lease and the get all sold out. (Philip m. , 2013) Electrical Power and stages Mr Michael Eavis is famouse for Glastonbury Festival of contemporary Arts for his ability to create an event that is unique for the industry since his almost 70% sustainable (Philip M. , Our-green. policies, 2013) Eavis’ have installed 1,116 solar panels which have been installed on the roof of the cowshed. The 1. 500-acre site effectively will bring the Glastonbury festival to be has ecologically as possible.The solar power en ergy well produce about 200 diesel-powered generators and will be able to produce enough electrical power to make sure than more than one band can play, The sound systems on site have a total power of 650,000 watts, with the main stage having 250 speakers. Also the food-and-drink suppliers will be able to operate there stalls when the lights of the day will go down. (Morris, 2010). Mr Eavis have given the concession to build such infrastructure in his farm to SOLAR PANEL UK with the collaboration of Greenpeace.The estimate investment plus the permission to install such infrastructure was about ? 40m. (UK, 2012) The project is very important because the name of solar panel will become part of the official sponsor for the festival. Also green peaces have the chance to promote suitability in the UK. Solar panel gets given 25% of the made from the concert. Conclusion Glastonbury Festival of performance of contemporary arts is a very well establish event. Has been running for over 40 yea rs. And every year them seem to improve in many aspects

The Problem of Sex Trafficking Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 20

The Problem of Sex Trafficking - Essay Example This paper explores the problem of sex trafficking through an exploration of the aforementioned book. The stories on Minh Dang and Maria Suarez convey a message that the girl child in the American society remains vulnerable to the threat of sexual molestation and trafficking as the girls were forced into the trade by their parents and guardians (for Minh’s case only), whom with the society expects a basic duty of care. Minh Dang’s parents started molesting her at the tender age of three and she was later traded in brothels to sustain her parent’s incomes against her will. On the other hand, Maria Suarez’s was tricked her into sexual slavery by sending her to attend a job interview for the position of a house help where she was later held hostage (Sher, 89). An evaluation of Abby Sher’s tales indicates that she succeeded in evaluating the discord people faced when experiencing sexual trafficking, but it is evident that she failed to include the actions undertaken by other members in the society to halt this anti-social behavior. Nonetheless, the author did not talk about the legal systems as it applies to the victims of sex trafficking. The author critically explores Minh Dan’s bio-history in the form of a story, and she appeals to the readers from varying demographic on the types of experiences condoned by the society as things of the past, but yet in prevalence and harmful to the young women and men. For instance, her emphasis that Minh dang faced sexual harassment from her father from age of 3 years is an indication that ignorance in the society has an instrument that has sustained such a horrendous vice.  

1. Individualism Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

1. Individualism - Essay Example Additionally, the process of decision-making must be such that it follows a universal rationality approach. Systemic rationality refers to the occurrences of the majority as defined by traditions, fiscal prices, communal norms, and customs, all of which cause free men to develop things that are superior to their understanding (Hayek 7-8). The implication is that true individualism values ordinary efforts by community or group, and family. Conversely, Hayek (22) the understanding of individuals is done best through separating them from the shared processes since the society and the individuals exist autonomous of each other. According to Hayek, the assumption is that individuals are strictly rational (10) and in order to participate in social processes, individuals are expected to readily and willingly adjust to alterations and remain submissive to standards that are beyond knowledgeable design (22). Additionally, false individualism disregards collaboration and the joint efforts of small groups to acknowledge coercive rules forced by states as responsible for establishing social ties. In this case, the state liberates individuals from forceful powers imposed on them by small groups. Rene Descartes and John Stuart Mill among others expressed this view. Hayek, however, warns that the individual has to be free in order for the society to be greater than the individual, but provided man is controlled and directed, the individual greater than the society (Hayek

Martin Luther King, Jr Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Martin Luther King, Jr - Essay Example Organised a non-violent protest march which served to dramatise these ugly realities of America and emphasise the nature of true democracy. He delivers the historically famous speech: â€Å"I have a dream† and he says â€Å"black men as well as white men would be guaranteed the unalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness†. This historical landmark highlighted the necessity of democracy that offered equal rights to all its citizens irrespective of their colour and race. The non-violent movement fought for this equality. Furthermore, he says, â€Å"Now is the tine to lift our nation from the quicksands of racial injustice to the solid rock of brotherhood. Now is the time to make justice a reality for all God’s children. ...all men are created equal†. So, the later part of the book starts so emphatically on the high note of equality and justice. It continues the same till 29th chapter. Racial inequality and brutality was commonplace. Notions about black were very common. But, to remove these misconceptions was the primary motive of the movement. He says, â€Å"We must use every constructive means to amass economic and political power. This is the kind of legitimate power we need. We must work to build racial pride and refute the notion that black is evil and ugly. But this must come through a program, not merely through a slogan†. Martin Luther King Jr. finds gaining political and economic power is the best way to gain what they wanted. â€Å"Black Power† was coined and put into currency. Civil rights was the motive. But, Martin Luther’s interpretation of the means to achieve Black Power was different from his contemporaries who considered militant ways. The negotiation was done so effectively that legal grounds are cited to justify the protest and March. The then Civil rights movement could have been one of the earliest instances of the voice of the voiceless, but it continues to this day in various forms, wherever prejudice or

Macroeconomics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Macroeconomics - Essay Example c. Inflation Rate (Current CPI - Last Year's CPI) / Last Year's CPI = ($95-$70)/$70 * 100% = 35.71% CRITICAL THINKING 1. c. I believe that the jobless recovery is most probably brought about by the weak confidence of the business sector on the economic recovery. They are hesitant of hiring new workers that they cannot sustain in the long run. In order to remedy this situation, they engaged in maximizing the production efficiency of individual workers to match the expected level of production. PROBLEM SOLVING 6. In the short run, prices and quantity supplied are stable. So, if demand changes, these factors will be unresponsive. It will just create an entirely different equilibrium. 10. a. Point B b. Improvements in technology and improvements in labor productivity c. Higher demand d. After the increase in aggregate supply, real GDP is greater than potential GDP. e. Increase in aggregate demand which is due to higher consumer expenditure, government expenditure, and investments will equate potential GDP with real GDP. PROBLEM SOLVING 10. a. Potential GDP will increase because of the higher labor force. b. Employment will be increase especially if all these immigrants secure new job opportunities. c. Real wage will go down because of the larger labor pool competing for jobs. CRITICAL THINKING 2. Memo Writing TO: MR PRESIDENT FROM: Student DATE: 7 SEPTEMBER 2007 TOPIC: INCREASING POTENTIAL GDP This is in response to your regarding the economic efforts which can increase the country's potential GDP. The following programs are recommended: 1. Training and development programs which can enhance the efficiency of human resource; 2. Higher wages that can motivate employees to work better; 3. Spending on research and development to improve...They are hesitant of hiring new workers that they cannot sustain in the long run. In order to remedy this situation, they engaged in maximizing the production efficiency of individual workers to match the expected level of production. b. China's GDP is growing because of capital increases in labor as well as other factors such as strong inflow of foreign investments. The effects of these factors can be separated by finding their individual dollar contribution. c. It should be noted that China has a higher population than the United States. However, it is forecasted that with the rapid increase in real GDP, the per capita real GDP will equal in the two countries in the mid-2040s. 2. I think baseball trading cards will be able to take the function of money in the economy. First, it is readily available to everyone, meaning everybody has an access to it as compared to tractor parts and impressionist paintings. As for store of value, it does not become stale like a loaf of bread. 8. Open market purchases operate in the economy by contracting demand causing a leftward shift in aggregate demand. This in turn, will lower the price level and GDP. This move decreases inflation in the long run while GDP is stabilized. b.

Do you need cosmetic surgery Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Do you need cosmetic surgery - Essay Example The bonafides of genuine, necessary plastic surgery are, of course, beyond debate. Reconstructive plastic surgery, which is performed to correct functional impairments caused by burns, trauma-induced bone injuries, congenital and developmental abnormalities, such as cleft palates, and abnormalities caused by diseases such as  cancer  or  tumors, is an essential and powerful tool of medical science. It is cosmetic surgery, or its more polished moniker, ‘Aesthetic plastic surgery,’ which is a fraud perpetrated on susceptible women and men by unscrupulous beneficiaries. Cosmetic surgery refers to the use of surgical techniques merely for the purpose of enhancing physical appearance. Cosmetic surgery runs the entire gamut of procedures from rhinoplasty and liposuction, to ‘tummy tucks’ and breast implants. It is medical science which has been corrupted for commercial use. It is a commercial industry, which has more in common with the cosmetic industry of f airness creams and hair colors, than with medical surgical procedures. The need of the hour is to bring cosmetic surgery under a strict regulatory mechanism as it is mere commercial exploitation, involves several risks, and engenders psychological disorders and abnormalities. According to the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Americans spent nearly $10.7 billion on cosmetic procedures in 2010. Since 1997, there has been over 155% increase in the total number of cosmetic procedures. In 2010, there has been more than 1.6 million surgical procedures performed in the US. This in the midst of a recession which sees one of the highest rates of unemployment in the history of the nation! These statistics are convincing evidence of the burgeoning commercial aspect of cosmetic surgery. The ever-increasing reach of the cosmetic surgery industry is the result of a cleverly orchestrated program of advertisement and promotion, aimed at a beauty conscious younger generation. Fox's re ality TV makeover show, "The Swan 2,† was won by DeLisa Stiles after â€Å"she morphed into a beauty queen† (Dittman, APA), with the help of the entire gamut of cosmetic surgery procedures – from face to feet. According to the British Medical Journal, Britons spend over 400 million dollars a year on cosmetic surgery, and it’s one of the most common reasons women give for non-property loans. In the United Kingdom, My Big Fat Plastic Surgery Prize Draw  is a lottery sponsored by a cosmetic surgery group, with ?4,000 worth of surgery of your choice as the prize. Prize draws, loyalty card schemes, divorcee packages, magazine competitions and online deals are all part of the advertising strategy to pull susceptible youth into the money-spinning cosmetic surgery industry (skininc.com). These marketing gimmicks are unscrupulous means of generating profit. The commercial potential of cosmetic surgery has even spawned a tourism industry. ‘Plastic Surgery Pa ckage Tours’ are now being hawked not only by several agencies, but also by governments, such as Thailand. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has promoted cosmetic surgery as it would any commodity – eighty percent of the clientele is foreign (Cullen, Time). Such a blatantly commercial enterprise continues to masquerade as a part of medical science! In aggressively marketing cosmetic surgery as a money-spinning concern, its advocates and beneficiaries conveniently ignore the

The Reality of Work cultures in the Modern Economy Essay

The Reality of Work cultures in the Modern Economy - Essay Example Sennett’s argument is based on the assertion that the flexibilities and the uncertainties of the correct working life are eroding the integrity of the sense of the sustained purpose in the employee’s life in the manner that have existed before in the society (Bradley, 2009). Indeed, the new era of the economy and work inclusive of the globalisation of the work, breaking apart of the bureaucracy and flexibility changes the work values in the most profound manner. As the networks are constantly redefining their characters and structures, the same thing is bound to happen to the employees that work in the episodic work relations and the short-term contracts (Giddens et al., 2000). In Schumpeterian terms, the entrepreneur is served as an ideal Everyman alongside the â€Å"portfolio worker† (Winter, 1984). Sennett asserts that the corroding of the character is the inevitable consequences of the uncertainties that are present in the everyday practices of the vigorous c apitalism of the 1990s. The character of the workers is mainly threatened by the new type of the labour in the modern economy-flexible work (Jessop et al., 1987). Thus, this conforms to Sennett’s assertion that flexibility in the workplace is the main characteristic of the modern working environment. Conversely, it’s true that flexibility brings advantages to the corporations and the enterprises.

Feminist Art Review of Cindy Sherman Self-Portrait Essay

Feminist Art Review of Cindy Sherman Self-Portrait - Essay Example Perhaps the most seminal artist operating in this cultural milieu is Cindy Sherman. Sherman’s art presents a multitude of perspectives on the self, interrogating identity, experience, and femininity in the postmodern world. This essay examines Sherman’s self-portrait Untitled Film Still 53 arguing that it presents a comprehensive response to mainstream perspectives on identity and actively resists the male gaze. Analysis While Cindy Sherman’s work almost exclusively explores conceptual portraits, her most notable collection is the Untitled Film Stills, 1977–1980. Within the context of this collection critics have divided the portraits into a variety of themes, still it’s clear that are a number of concerns that underline all these modes of representation. One of the most emblematic portraits of this collection is Sherman’s Untitled Film Still #53. From a strictly literal perspective, this work is a photographic portrait of Sherman wearing a b londe wig. Her eyes are slanted indifferently to the left. She is standing in front of a concrete wall that is blurred from view by the brightness of a light and photographic development techniques. While this portraiture presentation is ostensibly simplistic in meaning, further analysis reveals a number of deeper meanings. In deconstructing traditional representations of identity Sherman’s Untitled Film Still #53 resorts to one of the most pervasive constructors of identity – the cinema. Indeed, it’s been noted that in the, â€Å"early work by Cindy Sherman†¦she reconstructs the codes of the representation of femininity in cinema† (Jones, pg. 90). Within the context of this portrait one witnesses the co-optation of many elements of film noir cinema. In these regards, the low-key lighting and blurred focus are much in-line with this genre. While the photograph represents a recreation of this 1940s and 1950s aesthetic, the nature of it being a second- order representation is such that it leads individuals to question the nature of these early and mid-20th century forms of gender and identity construction. It’s noted that, â€Å"The intellectual woman looks and analyzes, and in usurping the gaze she poses a threat to an entire system of representation† (Jones, pg. 67). Such an understanding reveals perhaps the central meaning behind this specific portrait and Sherman’s larger body of work, namely that the artist has implemented conceptual portraits in a post-modern paradigm to interrogate previously held notions of truth and reality. Another prominent investigation of identity in this portrait is through interrogation of the male gaze. Feminist theory contains a strong emphasis on the representation of women in television and film, with Laura Mulvey’s the gaze a prominent area of consideration. Within Sherman’s portrait it’s clear she is exploring this feminist concern in a variety of ways . One prominent understanding, as is characteristic of Sherman’s Untitled Film Stills, is that, â€Å"Sherman has posed herself as embodied object, photographically frozen within gendered positions of vulnerability† (Jones, pg. 323). When one examines this within the outward representation of the photographic image, one of the major considerations is the mid-20th century costume and body language. Sherman’

Strategic Thinker Essay Example for Free

Strategic Thinker Essay After reading through, the tactical planner and logistician. I would consider myself to be a strategic thinker. Strategy has never been more challenging, or more important, than in todays environment of global competition, in which, corporate strategies must transcend the borders of nations and markets. Too many organizations try to be everything to everyone, wasting resources in markets that may never provide a worthwhile return on investment. What is strategic thinker? The ability to come up with effective plans in line with an organizations objectives within a particular economic situation. Strategic thinking helps business managers review policy issues, perform long term planning, set goals and determine priorities, and identify potential risks and opportunities. Systems perspective; being able to understand implications of strategic actions. A strategic thinker always have a mental model of the complete end-to-end system of value creation, his or her role within it, and an understanding of the competencies it contains. Intent focused; more determined and less distractible than rivals in the marketplace. Crediting Hamel and Prahalad with popularizing the concept, Liedtka describes strategic intent as the focus that allows individuals within an organization to marshal and leverage their energy, to focus attention, to resist distraction, and to concentrate for as long as it takes to achieve a goal. Thinking in time means being able to hold past, present and future in mind at the same time to create better decision making and speed implementation. Strategy is not driven by future intent alone. It is the gap between today’s reality and intent for the future that is critical. Scenario planning is a practical application for incorporating thinking in time into strategy making. Hypothesis driven, ensuring that both creative and critical thinking are incorporated into strategy making. This competency explicitly incorporates the scientific method into strategic thinking. Intelligent opportunism; which means being responsive to good opportunities. The dilemma involved in using a well-articulated strategy to channel organizational efforts effectively and efficiently must always be balanced against the risks of losing sight of alternative strategies better suited to a changing environment. There are two types of strategic approach: Emergent Strategy: Emergent strategy, on the other hand, is characterized by recursive learning loops, as an organization sets about on a course and then senses and reacts to opportunities that may not have been recognized at the onset. Deliberate Strategy: Deliberate strategy is process driven. Traditional calls for strategic planning indicate a desire for an analytic and somewhat linear approach to strategy. Importance of a strategic thinker The purpose of Strategic Thinking is to create a strategy that is a coherent, unifying, integrative framework for decisions especially about direction of the business and resource utilization. To do it, Strategic Thinking uses internal and external data, qualitative synthesis of opinions and perceptions. It is conscious, explicit, and proactive and defines competitive domain for corporate strategic advantage. Strategy is a key outcome of a relevant strategic thinking process. Tregoe and Zimmerman outlined the relationship between strategy and operations in their work on strategy, Top Management Strategy: What It Is and How To Make It Work Strategic Decisions: The object of strategy is to bring about advantageous conditions within which action will occur. In the military context, this means positioning forces for best advantage and judging precisely the right moment to attack or withdraw. Strategic decisions prior to D-Day in 1944, for example, included setting the day and time of the invasion of the European mainland as well as the choice of battleground. The campaign and each battle were conducted within the boundaries of space and time as set forth by strategy. Once strategy is determined, second tier or operational decisions can be made in the proper context. By definition, operational decisions are those that pertain to the broad execution of strategy. In the realm of business, operational planning is usually conducted with a one-year time horizon, fitting into the context of a longer-range strategic plan. In the military, endeavors resulting from operational decisions are often called campaigns. A campaign is a series of military operations or battles carried out over a large geographical area—such as WWII Normandy—in order to achieve a  large-scale objective during a war. The operational plans for D-Day, for example, set the stage for landing hundreds of thousands of men and significant amounts of equipment and materials on five Normandy-area beaches as part of the overall strategy for taking back France and ending the war in Europe. Other famous military campaigns include Sherman’s march through the Civil War South, Napoleon’s incursion into Russia, and Schwarzkopf’s Desert Storm conflict in Iraq. The Vietnam War presents an excellent example of tactical and operational success but strategic failure. Shortly after the war, a victorious North Vietnamese general was approached by an American general in a diplomatic setting. â€Å"You know,† said the American, â€Å"you never beat us on the battlefield.† Pondering the comment for a moment, the Vietnamese general replied, â€Å"That may be so. But it is also irrelevant.† Indeed, history shows that the American military never lost a significant battle in Vietnam. The war was lost, though, at the strategic level. The mission of the United States drifted to the point that merely finding a way out was considered a successful outcome. Napoleon once said that â€Å"in war, the moral is to the material as three to one.† With every material advantage possible, America did not have the strategic consensus—or the will—necessary to accomplish a military victory.

Legislations Essay Example for Free

Legislations Essay This is to find out if there are any educational needs. * Code of practice for the identification and assessment of children with special educational needs (1994 revised 2001) – Designed to help make efficient decisions for children with educational needs. * Reporting of injuries, diseases and dangerous occurrences regulations (RIDDOR) (1995) By law certain incidents/accidents have to be reported to the appropriate people. * Food safety amp; general food hygiene regulation (1995) – Knowledge of basic hygiene within food preparation and daily chores. Family law act (1996) – ensures the safety and best interest of the child. * Disability discrimination act (1995) – Ensures that the rights of those with disabilities. * Code of practice for first aid (1997) – Standard practice for trained first aiders. * Protection of children act (1998) – Anyone who works with children is required to undertake a crb check. This is to ensure the safety of children. * Children act (2004) – Ensures the development of children in their own home and of the carer. It identifies 5 outcomes, Staying safe, Being healthy, Enjoying and achieving, Making a positive contribution, Achieving economic well being. * Safeguarding the welfare of children (2013) – To protect children from abuse of neglect to ensure they can grow and achieve. Name: Kelly Rogers Centre Number: 1201. 000 Cache Pin: Cypop5 Understand how to set up a home based childcare setting Task 1 Produce an information sheet which outlines the following; Current legislation for home based childcare The role of the regulatory bodies * Equality act (2010) – This act was brought in to protect against discrimination. It is used to set out different ways in which you cannot treat another. * The convention on the rights of the child (UNCRC) (1989) – This legislation gives children over 40 major rights namely that their opinion or thoughts matter and they have the right to be included in or can make certain decisions. Name: Kelly Rogers Centre number: 1201. 000 Cache Pin: Cypop5 Understand how to set up a home based childcare setting. Task 1 produce an information sheet which outlines the following; Current legislation for home based childcare The role of the regulatory bodies The role of the regulatory body is to ensure that all children receive the best possible care when that child is in any other setting other than their own home. All childcare providers are required to register with the regulatory body, in England this is Ofsted. Any complaints or concerns can be made to Ofsted and if they feel it is necessary they will investigate and if needs be they will take action against any individual if the needs of the child is not being met. There are 2 different registers that childminders can register on 1 – the early years register 2 – the child care register. The early years register will require a visit from ofsted to assess your suitability as a childminder and that you are able to deliver all requirements of the early years foundation. They will determine how you will be able to help the child make progress with their learning and development. Ofsted will also assess how you will meet safeguarding and welfare requirements. Ofsted will also regulate numbers for the early years register to ensure that every childs needs are met. For the childcare register ofsted will not usually visit unless there is reason to do so. The childcare register is for those who care for more than 1 child following their 5th birthday.

Impacts of Climate Change on Womens Rights

Impacts of Climate Change on Womens Rights Impacts of Climate Change on Women’s Human Rights: Bangladesh perspective 1. Introduction At present, the consequences of climate change including increased temperature, increased sea level, excess precipitation, droughts, biodiversity loss, natural disasters and reduced food production threaten human rights and social justice. These consequences have brought more adversely impacts on low-income countries, which have produced less greenhouse gases. In particular, some vulnerable groups such as women are more vulnerable to climate change because they have weaker ability to address the challenge of climate change. As one of the least-developed countries in the world, Bangladesh faces the enormous challenges of the global climate change. Women in Bangladesh have been seriously affected by the climate change, with their human rights under great threat. This essay will analyze how climate change affects the human rights of Bangladeshi women and find potential pathways to tackle these problems. It will achieve this by firstly giving definitions and basic analyses about climate change and human rights. Following this it will look at how Bangladeshi women’s rights to life, health and education were affected by climate change. Finally, it will seek to give effective advice for better response to these impacts. 2. Climate Change and Human Rights 2.1 Climate Change There are two major definitions of climate change that are widely used. The two different definitions are presented by Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to FCCC(1992) as cited by Pielke (2004), FCCC that focused on international policy, described climate change as â€Å"a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and that is in addition to natural climate variability over comparable time periods†. On the other hand, IPCC that focused on scientific assessments defined climate change as â€Å"a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer†(Qin, Stocker & IPCC, 2013 : p123-125). It is clear that IPCC give climate change a br oader definition than FCCC. On the ground of FCCC definition, the reduction of vulnerability cannot be realized except though greenhouse gas emissions. But according to IPCC definition, there are some measures including adaption policies effective to address ecological or societal vulnerability brought by climate change. In this paper, both of this will be taken into consider. 2.2 Human Rights Facts and studies have shown that climate change poses a great challenge to human rights issues. Human rights are the inherent rights of every individual, regardless of our nationality, place of residence, sex, ethnicity, religion, language or any other status (Ariella Azoulay,2015). As United Nations (n.d.) have noted, â€Å"human rights included the right to life and liberty, freedom from slavery and torture, freedom of opinion and expression, the right to work and education, and many more†. It is worth mentioning that the concept of human rights does not remain at the theoretical level, but is described and protected by International human rights law (IHRL) and some national laws. For example, in Britain the Human Rights Act 1998 was introduced to protect human rights. As womens human rights are gaining increasing attention in the context of advocating gender equality, some research and related institutions begin to focus on the impact of climate change on womens human rights and do some work to help local women in the climatic vulnerable areas. 3. Climate Change’s Effects on Women’s Human Rights in Bangladesh Bangladesh is one of the countries most likely to suffer adverse impacts from climate change. This is mainly influenced by two factors, one of which is its special geographical location and the other is its social and economic underdevelopment. The total land area in Bangladesh is 147,570 square kilometers, including 80% of the floodplains. As a result, during the rainy season, most parts of the country (except the Northwest Highlands) are prone to flooding. Saleemul Huqï ¼Ë†2001ï ¼â€°compared Bangladesh with the Netherlands, indicating that geographical location is not the only reason why Bangladesh is affected by severe climate change. Bangladesh and the Netherlands are both low-lying deltaic countries, but the Netherlands possesses enough financial and scientific capacity to build higher seawalls for protecting its citizens against natural disasters, but Bangladesh cannot. 3.1 Effect of Climate Change on the Right to Life Climate change has caused frequent natural disasters in Bangladesh. Gender issues have always been a marginalized topic in the context of climate change, but we can still find some gender-related data in related climate change studies. Women are less able to escape from natural disasters. For example, during the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, the mortality rate of women was five times higher than that of men among the 20-44 age group(UNEP,2005). The reasons why there was a such difference are as follows. First, there is an imbalance of information between men and women in Bangladesh. Men can communicate with each other in public places for access to information, while women are mostly at home, unable to obtain timely and useful warning messages. Secondly, most Bangladeshi women lack the skills to swim or climb trees, and their dresses are not conducive to their escape from the disaster. In addition, it is more difficult for women to get rescuing resources to deal with damage and loss from extreme weather events because of the long-standing social bias. In other words, the gender inequality in Bangladesh society contributes to the vulnerability of local women. 3.2 Effect of Climate Change on the Right to health As a result of climate change, womens work has become even more dangerous and difficult in the society of Bangladesh. In most poor communities, getting drinking water for their families is the responsibility for women, just as Bangladesh. Climate change causes problems of drought and salinization of water in Bangladesh (Aguilar Revelo, 2009). Women in families have to walk a long distance to obtain water resources, which consumes a large amount of their time and leads to high risks of injury and even death in the process. Climate change have driven child marriage risks in Bangladesh, with women’s right to health damaged. Natural disasters such as floods and droughts aroused by climate change have made thousands of people become displaced and lose their financial sources (e.g. crops). In this â€Å"hopeless† situation,   many parents have to marry their young daughters off. Girls Not Brides (2017) noted that Bangladesh already had one of highest rates of child marriage in the world at 52%. Around 30% of girls in Bangladesh are married before their 15th birthday. Early marriages make these girls more vulnerable to domestic violence, and pregnancy at a young age is harmful for women’s health. 3.3 Effect of Climate Change on the Right to Education High temperatures, droughts and floods have made farmers in rural areas lose their land, crops and livestock, then these people have to migrate from villages to the so-called â€Å"climate change refuges†in Dhaka. Education is free in rural Bangladesh, while it is not free in Dhaka   (Jabeen,2014).   In the face of high tuition fees and living costs, parents choose to let the girls give up education. Gender bias in Bangladesh society also contributes to the choice. Families often prefer to give boys the limited educational opportunities and the girls should make an effort for boys. Also, gathering water and producing crops become increasingly difficult due to extreme weather in Bangladesh so that girls have to stay at home to share the housework. It becomes more and more difficult for local women to participate in decision-making process of climate change policy and measures due to lack of education. As a result, many policies and measures for dealing with climate change are formulated almost entirely by men and can not accurately satisfy the demands of women. 4. Possible Solutions Protecting women’s human rights from climate change needs transboundary cooperation including international institutions, local government, NGOs. There are some suggestions to address the issue and to improve women’s human rights in the context of the climate change in Bangladesh. First, women’s empowerment in the decision-making process is of vital importance. Actually, this concept has been clearly stated in some policies or agreements, but it still faces many challenges in its practical application. For example,â€Å"The Paris Agreement†explicitly requires that gender equality and womens empowerment should be taken into account in addressing climate change, and gender differences should be considered in actions and capacity building to address climate change(Guiot,2016). However, in poor countries, womens empowerment is not easy to realize in practice because of social prejudices and the low educational level of women. For better empowerment, local governments should provide education subsidies or free education for these climate refugees. Relevant policies should be introduced to demand that all children including girls receive basic education. Compulsory education gives girls more employment opportunities and enables them to participate in the stages of social decision-making, making their voices heard in the area of addressing climate change issue. Moreover, womens education optimizes the demographic structure andthus has a positive impact on climate change. This creates a virtuous circle. Secondly, the infrastructure should be improved. As mentioned earlier, water is greatly affected by climate change, and womens access to water becomes more difficult and vulnerable. It seems impossible to change this culture in Bangladesh that women should get water for their families, but infrastructure projects can be implemented in local area to help them get watereasier. For example, local governments, corporations or international organizations can invest money and technology to establish water factories to enable local residents to use clean tap water directly. In addition, construction of the roads and schools in local villages can also reduce the time and distance to go to school. As a result, the way of getting water becomes safe and women can have more time for education. Finally, womens access to early warning information and the basic skills to deal with disasters should be improved. For example, the local government and other non-governmental organizations can provide local women with free disaster-resistant training. Considering the low-level education of local women, training materials should be designed easy to understand. And a special information transmission team including female should be set up to timely transmit important information to women groups and reflect the demands of women. 5. Conclusion Women in Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable groups when it comes to the impact of climate change. With the impact of climate change, women not only need to spend more time in domestic work, but also becomes more vulnerable in the process. Climate change has aggravated the problem of poverty, leading to the emergence of dropouts and child marriages. In fact, women’s rights to life, health and education have been adversely affected by climate change. Fortunately, more and more agencies and researchers have been aware of this issue and done some related research. These research outcomes have been gradually affecting the governments policies about climate change. However, increasing the human rights of women in Bangladesh will require more efforts from multiple agencies. The essay also provides some possible ways in practice to deal with the problem, including women’s empowerment in decision-making process, constructing tap water factories, improving local roads, disaster prevention training for women. 6. References [1] Qin D, Stocker T. & Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group I. (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, p123-125. [2] Pielke, R.A.(2004) What is Climate Change? Energy & Environment. 15 (3), 515-520. [3] Ariella Azoulay. (2015) What Are Human Rights? Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East. 35 (1), 8-20. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/1089201X-2876056 [Accessed Nov.3th 2017]. [4] United nations. (n.d.) Human Rights. Available: http://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/human-rights [Accessed Nov.4th 2017]. [5] Saleemul, Huq. (2001) Climate Change and Bangladesh. Science (New York, N.Y.), 294(5547), p.1617. [6] United Nations Environment Programme. (2005) Mainstreaming Gender in Environmental Assessment and Early Warning. Available: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11822/8559[Accessed Nov.4th 2017]. [7] Aguilar Revelo, L. (2009) Training Manual On Gender and Climate Change. Gland, Switzerland, IUCN, pp.120-122. [8] Girls Not Brides.(2016) How Is Climate Change Driving Child Marriage? Available: https://www.girlsnotbrides.org/hidden-connections-climate-change-child-marriage-bangladesh/[Accessed Nov.5th 2017] [9] Jabeen, H. (2014) Adapting the built environment: the role of gender in shaping vulnerability and resilience to climate extremes in Dhaka. Environment & Urbanization. 26 (1), 147-165. [10] Guiot, J. & Cramer, W. (2016) Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems. Science. 354 (6311), 465-468.

Another Andrew Jackson :: essays research papers fc

Andrew Jackson, the seventh president of the United states, was born on March 15, 1767, in the Waxhaw settlement on the western frontier of South Carolina. Jackson was orphaned at the age of 14 and was brought up by his uncle. Jackson was born into a poor family. When his parents died, he went to live with his Uncle, who was a wealthy slave and land owner. As a result, Jackson moved among wealthy people and property owners, who monopolized the prestige and political influence in the back country. So now he could see what the different lives between the rich and the poor, he became really popular by the common people and also was considered part of the political movement and he led what was know as the Jacksonian Democracy. He could see that the wealthy were huge land owners or industrialized families, and the poor families were small farmers. Jackson was the type who wanted the land to be all American. Dealing with the Native American policy, he forcibly removed southern tribes from lands guaranteed then by federal treaties and the United States Supreme Court decisions. Doing this gave him great power and led the United States to a bigger nation, but what does that say about the United States words. Because of them, the Indians could not trust them any more. Jackson was also against slavery. Even Modern historians observe that Jackson was a large slave owner and that his party was the enemy of free blacks and their rights. He was so against African Americans, they denied anti-slavery pamphlets in the United States Postal Service. I think the reason that he liked slavery so much was because that his Uncle was a large slave owner and he found that they are very useful and could help make money a whole lot faster and cheaper then regular labor. If Jackson was against slavery, I feel that the Slavery issue would have ended a lot faster then it did in the American History. Jackson did do a lot for the country and also made the common people feel like they have a place in today society. If it was just rich people running the country,

Genocide :: essays research papers

Genocide After Rodney King was beaten, and the white police officers were aquitted, he said "Why can't we all just get along?" A question asked by many people. Rascist and Genocidal acts such as this have been going on for many years, and should not be tolerated. In international law, the crime of destroying, or committing conspiracy to destroy, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group is known as Genocide. It was defined in the Convention on Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on December 9, 1948. The crime of Genocide has been committed or attempted many times in recorded history. The best known example in this century was the attempt by Nazi Germany during the 1930's and 1940's to destroy the Jewish population of Europe, known as the Holocaust. By the end of World War II, 6 million Jews had been killed in Nazi concentration camps. The known objective of the Nazi rule was Jewish extinction. In November 1938, shortly after the assassination of a German diplomat in Paris by a young Jew, all synagogues in Germany were set on fire, windows of Jewish shops were smashed, and thousands of Jews were arrested. This "Night of Broken Glass" (Kristallnacht) was a signal to Jews in Germany and Austria to leave as soon as possible. Several hundred thousand people were able to find refuge in other countries, but a nearly equal number, including many who were old or poor, stayed to face an uncertain destiny. When war began in September 1939, the German army occupied the western half of Poland and added almost 2 million Jews to the German power sphere. Limitations placed on Polish Jewry were much worse than those in Germany. The Polish Jews were forced to move into ghettos surrounded by walls and barbed wire. The ghettos were like jailed cities. Each ghetto had a Jewish council that was responsible for housing, sanitation, and production. Food and coal were to be shipped in and manufactured products were to be sent out for German use. The food supply allowed by the Germans was mainly made up of grains and vegetables, such as turnips, carrots, and beets. In the Warsaw ghetto, the amount of food given provided barely 1200 calories to each inmate. Some black market food, smuggled into the ghettos, was sold at a very high price, and unemployment and poverty were common. The population was large, and the amount of people reached six or seven persons in a room. Typhus became common, and the death rate rose to roughly 1 percent a month.

Effect of fluoride ions on corrosion behavior of nickel Essay

1. Introduction: Titanium alloys are very reactive materials and reacts instaneusely with oxygen, forming an oxide film, which give them excellent anti corrosive properties []. Thus, titanium alloys have proven to be the most tissue compatible inorganic materials, especially for dentistry []. Nickel-titanium wires, which have a near equiatomic composition, were introduced to orthodontic clinical use by Andersen and colleagues in the early 1970’s []. They have been highly popular in dentistry because have a much lower elastic modulus and wider elastic range than other orthodontic wires such as those composed of beta-titanium, stainless steel, and cobalt-chromium-nickel []. NiTi alloys have excellent biocompatibility with living tissue and corrosion resistance in various simulated body fluids []. These properties originating from the spontaneously formed thin oxide passivation layer mainly consist of TiO2 []. For patients with orthodontic fixed appliance, mouth rinsing with fluoride-containing products is an effective method for the prevention of caries because such appliances have complicated morphologies []. However, reduced corrosion resistance of pure titanium and titanium alloys in fluoride containing environments that attack the protective surface oxide layer and cause allergic reactions to NiTi wires after insertion had been reported []. The corrosion resistance of pure titanium and titanium alloys largely depends on the fluoride concentrations []. Some studies concerning the corrosion behavior of titanium alloys in fluoride containing environments have been reported []. It is claimed that the fluoride containing solution with fluoride ions more than 20 ppm may destroy the protective oxide la... ...tive layer increases. 5. Conclusions The corrosion resistance of NiTi was studied in ringer’s solution for different chloride ion concentrations. Our results show that the increasing of the chloride ion concentration can accelerate the corrosion of NiTi alloy. The OCP values in KCl and NaCl contained solutions are less negative at lower concentrations than in higher ones and the resistance to corrosion decreases as the chloride concentration increases. According to the EIS analysis, NiTi presents a good corrosion resistance even at higher concentration of chloride ions but the polarization resistance and capacitance value of protective oxide layer decreases as the concentration of ions increases. Acknowledgements The author acknowledges the Shiraz University, school of materials science and engineering for the financial supports. (Grant No. 89-GR-Eng-58)

Econometrics – Vietnam Cpi

Hanoi University Faculty of Management and Tourism Vietnam's Consumer Price Index and Influencing Factors An Econometrics Report 5/11/2012 Tutorial 2 – BA09 Lecturer: Ms. Dao Thanh Binh Tutor: Ms. Tr? n Kim Anh Group members: Nguy? n Th? Ha Giang ID: 0904000018 Ngo Thi Mai Huong ID: 0904000039 Le Thanh Long ID: 0904000050 Bui Th? Huong Quyen ID: 0904000072 Hoang Minh Thanh ID: 0904000082 D? Dang Ti? n ID: 0904000089 Truong Cong Tu? n ID: 0904000091 Nguy? n Thanh Tuy? n ID: 0904000092 AcknowledgementFirst and foremost, we would like to express our gratitude to all those who gave us the possibility to complete this research. We would like to convey our sincere thanks to our lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, lecturer of Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University, for her conscientious and dedicated lectures. Without her valuable knowledge, this research cannot be accomplished. Our deepest gratitude also goes to our beloved tutor Ms. Tran Kim Anh, master. Her devoted inst ructions and support were of great help.Without her heart-felt assistance and encouragement, this paper would not be able to come to this result. Abstract In recent years, Vietnam’s inflation has increased to an alarming rate of two-digit, ranking itself one of 5 countries having the highest inflation rate in the world. That Consumer Price Index (CPI) has incessantly escalated is the primary reason for such worrying issue. Our project, therefore, is aimed at investigating and analyzing Vietnam’s CPI by testing the impact of following factors on CPI: USD/VND exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply.Henceforth, a prediction about inflation rate drawing from CPI and affecting factors analysis may be given to help us better prepare for problems that can occur as a result of distressing inflation. The model that can best illustrate relationship between the independent variables and CPI has been detected. Basing on our research, it is apparent that those four variables have a significant influence on Consumer Price Index. Table of Contents Acknowledgementii Abstractiii List of Tables and Figuresv 1. Introduction1 2. Methodology2 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sources2 . 2. Methods of processing the data2 3. Data analysis3 3. 1. Consumer Price Index3 3. 2. Exchange rate4 3. 3. Petrol price5 3. 4. Rice price6 3. 5. Money supply7 4. Model specification7 4. 1. Variables and relationships7 4. 2. Model selection8 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing13 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation13 5. 2. Hypothesis testing13 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients13 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model15 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable16 6. Errors and limitation17 6. 1. Limitations17 6. 2.Errors and remedials18 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity18 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity20 6. 2. 3. Autocorrelation21 7. Conclusion24 Appendixa Referencesb List of Tables and Figures Table 1: EVi ew regression result: Lin-lin model9 Table 2: EView regression result: Log-log model10 Table 3: EView regression result: Lin-log model11 Table 4: EView regression result: Log-lin model12 Table 5: R2 and CV comparison between models12 Table 6: EView regression result: New model16 Table 7: EView regression result: P-R,MS18 Table 8: EView regression result: R-P,MS19 Table 9: EView regression result: MS-P,R19Table 10: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms)21 Table 11: EView regression result: Durbin-Watson statistic22 Table 12: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 223 Figure 1: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 20103 Figure 2: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 20104 Figure 3: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 20105 Figure 4: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 20106 Figure 5: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion)7 1. Introduction Every nation worldwide has ever confronted with inflation and attempting to solve inflation problem.Vie tnam is not an exception. Inflation has proved to be one of the most concerned issues by both Vietnamese government and economists for nearly a decade as it has tendency towards ceaselessly inflating since 2004. Inflation is an increase in overall prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Inflation rate during a year will probably rise if there is a escalation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that year comparing to previous year, basing on following formula: InflationYear 2=CPIYear 2-CPIYear 1CPIYear 1Therefore, understanding the nature of inflation and efficiently anticipating it can essentially improve and strengthen the economy in generally, guiding business towards better strategy, as well as helping people adapt to price change in particular. Not only is CPI a powerful tool for government and economic experts to observe the whole society’s level of consumption, but it also, more importantly, predict the inflation rate that may have a considerable impact on the whole economy as well as the people’s daily lives.According to World Bank and International Monetary Funds (IMF), however, Vietnam is listed in high-inflation zone with a growing CPI. As for IMF’s facts, Vietnam’s CPI in August 2011 went up by 23. 02% compared to the same month of 2010; CPI in December 2011 also increased by 15. 68% compared to 2010. Besides, Vietnam’s economy has witnessed a simultaneous boost in price of goods and petrol throughout the year, together with decreasing purchasing power in recent years. Do these facts indicate a bad situation for Vietnam? We probably do not know for sure.We, instead, can help develop a more optimistic economy from the prediction of CPI as well as inflation rate of Vietnam. From such above serious facts and figures, this project is conducted to analyze Vietnam’s CPI and factors affecting CPI, then, giving prediction about Vietnam’s inflation rate by forming an overall picture of v ariations in people’s living expenditure, thus assist judging the possibility of inflation which may collapse even a huge economy of Vietnam due to the case of hyperinflation. 2. Methodology 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sourcesAs discussed earlier and will be examined deeper later in this paper, there are some factors that play an important role in deciding the level of consumer price index in Vietnam. They consist of the movement of exchange rate (specifically, the USD/VND exchange rate), the price of petrol in Vietnam which is very critical, the Vietnamese rice price and governmental money supply. Through the application of econometric theories along with the examination of each single factor, the model can be formed as follow: CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+?In order to gather the information regarding the four factors (independent variables), a number of data have been collected in the period 2000 – 2010: * The annual Vietnamese USD/VND exchange rate; * The annual Vietnamese rice price; * The annual money supply of Vietnamese government and other institutions; * The annual petrol price of Vietnam. All the data gathered have been found from various sources on trusted websites, in which we can count on the reliability and accuracy of the statistics and other related information. 2. 2. Methods of processing the data The data gathered above are just raw data.Therefore, in order to make prediction about the level of CPI in Vietnam accurately, some processes and calculation surely need to be made. First time, the raw data ought to be processed through the power of such computational tools as Eview and Microsoft Excel. Particularly, Microsoft Excel will help determine the trend in the independent variables (exchange rate, rice price, money supply and petrol price) as they change throughout the years and other necessary computation whereas Eview and its econometric calculations assist in figuring out some critical indicators (t-st atistic, R squared, adjusted R squared, p-value, etc. . After having those numbers and indices, two tests (the t-test and the f-test) are professionally used to make out not only the degree of significance of each independent variable but also the overall meaningfulness that all the independent variables contribute to the determination of CPI. From then on, it should be more convenient for us to make some anticipation about the trend of CPI in Vietnam based on the processed data we made. 3. Data analysis 3. 1. Consumer Price Index Figure [ 1 ]: Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 2010First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) measures of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. In fact, it provides information about price changes in the nation’s economy to government, business, labor and private citizens and is used by them as a guide to making economic decisions. Therefore, analyzing CPI is very important this aids in formulating fiscal and monetary po licies. As can be seen from the chart, there was a steady increase in the CPI from 2000 to 2010. In other word, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living during 10 years.To specify, after undergoing a slight growth in the first fourth years from 100 to about 110, CPI increased significantly to a peak of around 210 in the last year. There are many factors including exchange rate, money supply, rice price and petrol price which cause this growth in CPI are being concerned. 3. 2. Exchange rate Figure [ 2 ]: Vietnam's USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled from 2000 to 2010, the exchange rate of USD/VND experienced an upward trend. In 2000, the USD/VND exchange rate was VND 14,170, then increased by 4% and 5% in 2002 and 2003 respectively.From 2003 to 2008, the exchange rate remained stable around VND 15,700 which can be explained by some rationales. First of all, Vietnam central bank manipulated the market by sellin g USD and tried to adjust the exchange rate unchanged in following years (vietcombank, 2002). Moreover, due to the US economic instability and USD depreciation against other currencies, VND depreciated less than expected. In 2009, the exchange rate underwent a surge to VND17, 066 and continued increasing dramatically to VND 18,620 in 2010.Though the central bank implemented many policies to stabilize the exchange rate, it still rose significantly since many citizens had speculated the USD and waited until it appreciated much more against VND (scribd, 2010). Another reason is the real demand in USD due to the increase in exported products and labours. According to Mr Nguyen Van Binh, vice president of the Central Bank, increasing exchange rate is an effective tool crafted by the central bank to boost export and economic development (luattaichinh, 2009). 3. . Petrol price Figure [ 3 ]: Vietnam's retail petrol price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data accumulated, the gasoline pric e generally has an upward trend though the 11-year period from 2000 to 2010 Over the first 4 years from 2000 to 2003, the price of gasoline remained the same or changed not much. The 4 years of price stability had experienced the dramatic change, which was a huge increase to 122. 2% in 2006 (from 5,400 to 12000 VND). From that point of time, the gasoline price slightly felt to 11,300 in 2007.This is, however, followed by a significant growth from 11,300 to 16,320 VND in 2008 and fluctuated in the duration of 2008 and 2010. In conclusion, the price of gasoline in Vietnam is predicted to be continuing to grow over the next few years. 3. 4. Rice price Figure [ 4 ]: Vietnam's rice price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled, the rice price has an upward trend though the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010. The price of rice sold was fairly steady over the first 3 years from 2000 to 2003 with a slight rise to 100. 6%. This stability was followed by a sudden increase to 122. % in 2006. This trend was strengthenedby the fact that Vietnam became an official member of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007( BBC 2007), which rocketed Vietnam’s inflation to 12. 6% (ThuyTrang 2008). In addition, 2007–2008 world food price crises contributed a part in the growth of world food price in general and rice price in Vietnam in particular ( Compton etc. 2010, p. 20), leading to a remarkable rise on Vietnamese rice price to 215. 2% in 2008, and 251. 8% in 2010. To sum up, the Vietnamese rice shot up over 2. 5 times from 2000 (100%) to 2010 (215. %) and this trend is surmised to still keep going on in next few years. 3. 5. Money supply Figure [ 5 ]: Vietnam's money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion) Starting with nearly $ 200,000 billion in 2000, the amount of money in the economy saw a slight rise between 2001 and 2004 but money supply still lower than $ 500,000 million, before ending with a significant increase for the last period and reaching at $ 2, 478,310 billion in 2010. With the amount of money in market increasing by from 15% to 50% each year; Vietnamese have more money to spend and price level also affected. 4.Model specification 4. 1. Variables and relationships In order to study the movements of CPI in Vietnam, it is essential to evaluate the factors that drive the changes in CPI. a) USD/VND exchange rate It is easily seen that Vietnam has suffered from a great trade deficit which means import being more than export. Therefore, if the exchange rate USD/VND increases, which can be explained as VND depreciates against USD; imported products will be more expensive than before. Since imported products exceed exported products, Vietnamese consumers have to suffer from higher price of all imported products.By that, domestic producers as the result will take advantage of this moment to increase the price of domestic products to compete with other foreign products. Tradable goods being half the basket of the CPI will increase t he price which leads to the surge in the CPI. b) Petrol price Almost all the products directly or indirectly need the use of petrol as the main fuel for transportation, production or substitute fuel for electricity, coal, etc. If the price of petrol increases, the cost of production will experience a rise as well.Hence, the producers will increase the prices of goods to compensate for the increase in production cost which contributes to higher CPI. c) Rice price One of the main categories that are included in the basket of goods when calculating CPI is food. Vietnam is a country where people consume rice as the main food in daily meals, thus the change in rice price will affect the CPI of Vietnam. d) Money supply Lastly, as CPI is heavily dependent on the prices of goods and services, money supply is also one of the factors that have effect on CPI.This can be explained by the fact that the higher supply of money there is on the market, the lower the value of Vietnam currency is. As Vietnam Dong depreciates, prices of goods and services will be higher and vice versa. As a result, money supply changes lead to CPI changes. 4. 2. Model selection From the identification of the factors affecting CPI above, the variables will be denoted as follow: CPI: Consumer Price Index ER: Exchange rate of USD/VND P:Petrol price R: Rice price MS:Money supplyA number of possible models are applicable for the research, and in order to evaluate the appropriateness of each model, we based on 2 criteria: * R2: Coefficient of determination: The percentage of variation in CPI is explained by the model. * CV: Coefficient of variation: The average error of the sample regression function relative to the mean of Y. The model with higher R2 and lower CV is better. a) Lin-Lin model CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:20| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 49. 84103| 25. 60055| 1. 946873| 0. 0995| ER| 0. 000830| 0. 001632| 0. 508588| 0. 6292| P| 0. 002170| 0. 000396| 5. 480252| 0. 0015| R| 0. 236729| 0. 046411| 5. 100736| 0. 0022| MS| 2. 02E-05| 5. 21E-06| 3. 885527| 0. 0081| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998614|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997691|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 1. 879410|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 402748| Sum squared resid| 21. 19309|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 83610| Log likelihood| -19. 21511|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 288740| F-statistic| 1081. 125|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 490665| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 1 ]: EView regression result: Lin-lin model Regression function: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729 ? R+0. 00002? MS R2 = 0. 998614 CV=? Y=1. 879410137. 9727=0. 013622 b) Log-Log model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? ln(R)+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:22| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | |Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1. 145265| 1. 841843| -0. 621804| 0. 5569| LOG(ER)| 0. 215912| 0. 205886| 1. 048698| 0. 3347| LOG(P)| 0. 089703| 0. 048661| 1. 843424| 0. 1148| LOG(R)| 0. 413783| 0. 038424| 10. 76876| 0. 0000| LOG(MS)| 0. 081931| 0. 034964| 2. 343304| 0. 0576| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998138|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 996897|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 014939|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -5. 266690| Sum squared resid| 0. 01339|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz c riterion| -5. 085828| Log likelihood| 33. 96679|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -5. 380698| F-statistic| 804. 0941|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 453663| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 2 ]: EView regression result: Log-log model Regression function: ln? (CPI)=-1. 145265+0. 215912? lnER+0. 089703? ln? (P)+0. 413783? ln? (R)+0. 081931? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 998138 CV=? Y=0. 0149390. 489313=0. 030531 c) Lin-Log model CPI=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? lnR+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | |Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -1186. 909| 420. 9102| -2. 819864| 0. 0304| LOG(ER)| 85. 49691| 47. 05046| 1. 817132| 0. 1191| LOG(P)| 9. 066673| 11. 12034| 0. 815324| 0. 4460| LOG(R)| 80. 80824| 8. 780996| 9. 202627 | 0. 0001| LOG(MS)| 1. 356787| 7. 990229| 0. 169806| 0. 8707| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995428|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992380|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11026| S. E. of regression| 3. 414025|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 5. 96616| Sum squared resid| 69. 93340|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 5. 777478| Log likelihood| -25. 78139|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 5. 482608| F-statistic| 326. 5862|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 282666| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 3 ]: EView regression result: Lin-log model Regression function: CPI=-1186. 909+85. 49691? ln? (ER)+9. 066673? lnP+80. 80824? ln? (R)+1. 356787? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 995428 CV=? Y=3. 414025137. 9727=0. 024744 d) Log-Lin model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is: Dependent Variable: LOG(CPI)| | |Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/07/12 Time: 22:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 4. 288043| 0. 311641| 13. 75958| 0. 0000| ER| 7. 55E-06| 1. 99E-05| 0. 379928| 0. 7171| P| 2. 76E-05| 4. 82E-06| 5. 717411| 0. 0012| R| 0. 000539| 0. 000565| 0. 953313| 0. 3772| MS| 1. 38E-07| 6. 34E-08| 2. 184042| 0. 0717| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 995633|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 0. 489313| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 992722|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 0. 268175| S. E. of regression| 0. 22878|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| -4. 414290| Sum squared resid| 0. 003141|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| -4. 233428| Log likelihood| 29. 27859|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | -4. 528297| F-statistic| 341. 9975|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 798845| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 4 ]: EView regression result: Log-lin model Regression function : ln? (CPI)=4. 288043+0. 000075? ER+0. 000027? P+0. 000539? R+0. 000014? MS R2 = 0. 995633 CV=? Y=0. 0228780. 489313=0. 046755 To sum up, we have a comparison of R2 and CV among the models: | R2| CV| a| 0. 998614| 0. 013622| b| 0. 998138| 0. 030531| c| 0. 995428| 0. 24744| d| 0. 995633| 0. 046755| Table [ 5 ]: R2 and CV comparison between models From the results above, the model a) is the most appropriate model to explain the relationship between CPI the other factors: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation The chosen Lin-Lin model and its interpretation are described as follow: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS ?1=49. 84103: If exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply equal 0 at the same time, CPI should be 49. 4103 on average. However, this does not make much economic sense as there is no situation that e xchange rate, petrol price, rice price or money supply could be equal to 0. ?2 = 0. 00083: Holding other variables constant, if exchange rate increases by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00083 units on average. ?3 = 0. 00217: Holding other variables constant, if price of petrol rises by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00217 units on average. ?4 = 0. 236729: Holding other variables constant, if rice price goes up by 1 unit, CPI will rise by 0. 236729 units on average. ?5 = 0. 0002: Holding other variables constant, if money supply increases by 1 unit, CPI will go up by 0. 00002 units on average. 5. 2. Hypothesis testing 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients a) Test the individual significance of ? 2 * Step 1: H0: ? 2=0 Ha: ? 2? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 2-? 2SE(? 2) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 2-0Se(? 2)=0. 0008300. 001632=0. 508588 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to conclude that ? is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. b) Test the individual significance of ? 3 * Step 1: H0: ? 3=0 Ha: ? 3? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 3-? 3SE(? 3) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 3-0Se(? 3)=0. 0020170. 000396=5. 480252 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 3 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. c) Test the individual significance of ? 4 * Step 1: H0: ? 4=0 Ha: ? ? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 4-? 4SE(? 4) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 4-0Se(? 4)=0. 2367290. 046411=5. 100736 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 4 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. d) Test the individual significance of ? 5 * Step 1: H0: ? 5=0 Ha: ? 5? 0 * Step 2: T-statistic t-stat=? 5-? 5SE(? 5) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stat;tc(? , n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5: T-stat value t=? 5-0Se(? 5)=2. 02? 10-55. 21? 10-6=3. 885527 ; tc = 2. 447 * Step 6: Conclusion: Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 5 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model * Step 1: H0: ? 2=? 3=? 4=? 5=0 Ha: i? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic f-stat=R2/(k-1)(1-R2)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if f-stat;fc(? ,k-1,n-k)=fc(0. 05,4,6)=4. 53 * Step 5: F-stat value f-stat=0. 998614/(5-1)(1-0. 998614)/(11-6)=1081. 125;fc=4. 3 * Step 6: Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is e nough evidence to conclude that at least one coefficient is different from 0 and the overall model is statistically significant. 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable From the test above, we drew the conclusion that ? 2 is insignificant. Thus, an F-test of dropping the independent variable of Exchange rate from the model will be conducted. The regression results obtained from EView of the new model is: Dependent Variable: CPI| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 11:07| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 62. 73309| 3. 386991| 18. 52178| 0. 0000| P| 0. 002123| 0. 000364| 5. 828831| 0. 0006| R| 0. 229613| 0. 041843| 5. 487545| 0. 0009| MS| 2. 22E-05| 3. 29E-06| 6. 758719| 0. 0003| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 998555|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 137. 9727| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 997935|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 39. 11 026| S. E. of regression| 1. 777106|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 263137| Sum squared resid| 22. 10674|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 407826| Log likelihood| -19. 44725|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 4. 171931| F-statistic| 1612. 50|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 175208| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000000| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 6 ]: EView regression result: New model The old model is: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998614 The new model is: CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998555 * Step 1: H0: ? 2 = 0 Ha: ? 2 ? 0 * Step 2: F-statistic F*=(R2unrestricted-R2restricted)/Number of dropped regressors(1-R2unrestricted)/(n-k) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if F* ; Fc(? ,No,n-k) = Fc(0. 05,1,11-4) = 5. 59 * Step 5: F* value F*=(0. 98614-0. 998555)/1(1-0. 998614)/(11-4)=0. 29798 * Step 6: Conclusion F* ; Fc Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. It is statistically reasonable to drop Exchange Rate variable from the model. The new model obtained is:CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS| 6. Errors and limitation 6. 1. Limitations In spite of the results and discussion mentioned above, our report in general and our model in particular have their limitations that hinder our group to develop the most effective model. First and foremost, in data analysis, we presented a table of 1 dependent variable and 4 independent variables during the period of 2000-2010.In total, we have only collected 11 observations annually and the variables sometimes do not have the similar observations. It is obvious to state that the larger the sample size the higher the probability that our sample statistics get close to the true value or population parameters. For such reason, our small number observations may result in inaccuracy of the model. Furthermore, there exists mutual effects among the independent variables. For instance , the Money supply may have an effect on the Exchange rate. Additionally, the Rice price is also influenced by the Petrol price because petrol is the main energy source for production, etc.Such problems may falsify our results and they will be discussed further in the section of errors and remedies. To conclude, even though limitations exist, the foundation of our model is statistically undeniable. Nevertheless, any new econometric model constructed by us in the future will be designed and eliminated all negative limitations. 6. 2. Errors and remedials 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity exists due to some functional the existence of linear relationship among some or all independent variables. Multicollinearity can cause many consequences.For instance, OLS estimators have large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. This error can lead to large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. In order to detect the existence of multicollinearity, a simple tool of detection which is VIF can be applied. Beforehand, a number of auxiliary regressions that depict the relation ship between the independent variables must be done. Dependent Variable: P| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 12:23| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 2529. 790| 3163. 446| 0. 799695| 0. 4470| R| 28. 45504| 39. 34718| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 0. 003706| 0. 002908| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 890213|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 10088. 18| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 862766|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 4656. 172| S. E. of regression| 1724. 882|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 17. 97071| Sum squared resid| 23801730|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 18. 07922| Log likelihood| -95. 83888|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 17. 90230| F-statistic| 32. 434 22|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 144479| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00145| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 7 ]: EView regression result: P-R,MS VIFP=11-R2P,R,MS=11-0. 890213=9. 10855;10 Dependent Variable: R| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:11| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 67. 25990| 15. 92311| 4. 224043| 0. 0029| P| 0. 002156| 0. 002982| 0. 723179| 0. 4902| MS| 5. 93E-05| 1. 82E-05| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 943086|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 144. 2364| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 928858|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. ependent var| 56. 29715| S. E. of regression| 15. 01585|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 8. 483090| Sum squared resid| 1803. 805|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 8. 591607| Log likelihood| -43. 65699|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 8. 414685| F-statistic| 66. 28185|   Ã ‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 625481| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 000010| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 8 ]: EView regression result: R-P,MS VIFR=11-R2R,P,MS=11-0. 943086=17. 57047;10 Dependent Variable: MS| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 13:13| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std.Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| -912567. 0| 169274. 2| -5. 391058| 0. 0007| P| 45. 52633| 35. 72593| 1. 274322| 0. 2383| R| 9603. 994| 2954. 787| 3. 250317| 0. 0117| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 949597|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| 931956. 0| Adjusted R-squared| 0. 936996|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 761613. 1| S. E. of regression| 191169. 4|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 27. 38671| Sum squared resid| 2. 92E+11|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 27. 49522| Log likelihood| -147. 6269|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. | 27. 31830| F-statistic| 75. 36010|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 509023| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 00006| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 9 ]: EView regression result: MS-P,R VIFMS=11-R2MS,P,R=11-0. 949597=19. 84009;10 From the results above, we see that VIFP ; 10 whereas VIFR, VIFMS ; 10. Thus multicollinearity does not exist for Petrol variable, while multicollinearity exists for Rice and Money Supply variables. This can be explained by the fact that Petrol price is not influenced by other factors whilst Rice and Money Supply are influenced by Petrol price, as petrol is one of the main sources of energy for production of other goods and services. In general, multicollinearity does exist in the model.Nevertheless, the sole purpose of our research is for prediction and forecasting the inflation level of Vietnam based on CPI and the factors affecting CPI. Therefore, multicollinearity is not a serious issue for our research and we decided to take no action to fix the problem. 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity makes economic models violate one assumption which is homoskedasticity of equal variance of error terms. Heteroskedasticity causes ordinary least squares estimates of the variance (and, thus, standard errors) of the coefficients to be biased, possibly above or below the true or population variance.As the consequence, biased standard error estimation can lead to both type I error (reject the true hypothesis) and type II error (do not reject false hypothesis). To detect the heteroskedasticity, there are a number of methods that can be applied. Among them, we chose White's Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) to detect the existence of heteroskedasticity. * Step 1: H0: Homoskedasticity. Ha: Heteroskedasticity. * Step 2: Run the OLS on regression to obtain residual ui Run the auxiliary regression to get the new model u2=? 1+? 2X2i+†¦ + ? qXqi+? q-1X22i+†¦ +? 2q-1X2qi+vi H0:? 2=? 3=†¦ = ? q W-statistic: W=n?R2(R2 of the new model) * Step 3: Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule Reject H0 if W>? 2? ,df=? 20. 05,6=12. 5916 * Step 5: W-statistic value From the results of EView, we have White Heteroskedasticity Test:| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Probability| 0. 720319| Obs*R-squared| 5. 253654| Probability| 0. 511716| | | | | | Test Equation:| Dependent Variable: RESID^2| Method: Least Squares| Date: 05/09/12 Time: 19:52| Sample: 2000 2010| Included observations: 11| Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | C| -51. 06331| 66. 56641| -0. 767103| 0. 4858| P| -0. 003894| 0. 005892| -0. 60928| 0. 5448| P^2| 1. 82E-07| 3. 29E-07| 0. 552995| 0. 6097| R| 1. 041681| 1. 113821| 0. 935232| 0. 4026| R^2| -0. 003233| 0. 003599| -0. 898302| 0. 4198| MS| -1. 70E-05| 3. 45E-05| -0. 490921| 0. 6492| MS^2| 8. 86E-12| 1. 31E-11| 0. 676092| 0. 5361| R-squared| 0. 477605| Mean dependent var| 2. 009703| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 305988| S. D. dependent var| 3. 115326| S. E. of regression| 3. 560188| Akaike info criterion| 5. 638630| Sum squa red resid| 50. 69977| Schwarz criterion| 5. 891836| Log likelihood| -24. 01247| F-statistic| 0. 609507| Durbin-Watson stat| 2. 651900| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 20319| Table [ 10 ]: EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) W=n? R2=5. 253654 4 – dU: Reject H0 * dU < d < 4 – dU: Do not reject H0 * dL ? d ? dU or 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL: Inconclusive k' = 3, df = 11. dL = 0. 595;dU = 1. 928 * Step 5: D-statistic value From EView table, we have D-statistic = 2. 175208 * Step 6: Conclusion We have 4 – dU = 4 – 1. 928 = 2. 072 4 – dL = 4 – 0. 595 = 3. 405 4 – dU ? d ? 4 – dL. There is not enough evidence to conclude whether first-order autocorrelation exists or not. b. Breusch-Godfrey test Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:| | | | | | | | | | | | F-statistic| 0. 399592|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob. F(2,5)| 0. 6903| Obs*R-squared| 1. 515907|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Prob.Chi-Square(2)| 0. 4686| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Test Equation:| | | | Dependent Variable: RESID| | | Method: Least Squares| | | Date: 05/09/12 Time: 14:40| | | Sample: 2000 2010| | | Included observations: 11| | | Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. | | | | | | | | | | | Variable| Coefficient| Std. Error| t-Statistic| Prob. | | | | | | | | | | | C| 0. 366991| 3. 997023| 0. 091816| 0. 9304| P| 0. 000262| 0. 000749| 0. 349805| 0. 7407| R| -0. 020687| 0. 052521| -0. 393881| 0. 7099| MS| -1. 21E-07| 4. 84E-06| -0. 025029| 0. 9810| RESID(-1)| -0. 121687| 0. 700832| -0. 173632| 0. 8690|RESID(-2)| -0. 759777| 1. 305304| -0. 582069| 0. 5858| | | | | | | | | | | R-squared| 0. 137810|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var| -5. 51E-15| Adjusted R-squared| -0. 724381|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S. D. dependent var| 1. 486833| S. E. of regression| 1. 952445|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion| 4. 478494| Sum squared resid| 19. 06021|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion| 4. 695528| Log likelihood| -18. 63172|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan- Quinn criter. | 4. 341685| F-statistic| 0. 159837|   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat| 1. 950970| Prob(F-statistic)| 0. 967201| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Table [ 12 ]: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test: Lags 2 * Step 1: Identify Ho and Ha:Ho: No second order autocorrelation Ha: Second order autocorrelation * Step 2: Test statistic: BG – statistic = (n – p)* R2 (p = df = number of degree of order = 2) * Step 3: Significance level: ? = 5% * Step 4: Decision rule: Reject H0 if BG; ,p2=? 0. 05,22=5. 99174 * Step 5: BG-statistic value From EView table, we have BG = (11-2)*R2 = 9*0. 137810 = 1. 24029 ; 5. 99174 * Step 6: Conclusion Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to infer the existence of second-order autocorrelation. In addition, we also notice that the p-value of first-order is greater than 0. 5, thus the first-order autocorrelation does not exist either. To sum up, there is no autocorrelation error in the model. 7. Conclusion After thorou ghly investigating models and their significant, it can be inferred that the best appropriate model, which can well explain the relationship between CPI and affecting factors, is the following one: CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS Basing on the analysis, the model is proved to rather make sense as the fact that three independent variables, including petrol price, rice price and money supply, apparently affect Vietnam's CPI.After testing, the USD/VND exchange rate, nevertheless, is clearly insignificant. Consequently, the exchange rate is reasonably dropped out of the model. Moreover, all independent variables have positive relationship with CPI since the increase of any variables may result in growth of CPI. Besides the effectiveness and meaningfulness of the model, errors and limitation still exist. Multicollinearity is found out to be the considered issue, however, it is truly difficult to have any suitable remedial. And, two rest errors including h eteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are shown not to exist.It is the fact that the model is unavoidable to some errors and limitations, but these problems seem trivial and slight. From above analyzed data, the independent variables present a common trend of increasing, which leads to tendency of CPI to rise as well. Therefore, we insist that the CPI for the next years will boost. Despite Vietnamese government's important efforts to refrain the inflation rate, it is still essentially prone to escalate as a result of inevitable trend. Appendix Data of CPI, Exchange rate, Petrol price, Rice price and Money supply from 2000 to 2010Year| CPI| Exchange Rate| Petrol price| Rice price| Money supply (VND billion)| 2000| 100| 14,170. 23| 5400| 100| 196,994. 00| 2001| 102| 14,816. 76| 5400| 101| 250,846. 00| 2002| 104. 3| 15,346. 00| 5400| 101. 5| 284,144. 00| 2003| 107. 6| 15,475. 99| 5600| 100. 6| 378,060. 00| 2004| 115. 9| 15,704. 13| 7000| 114. 8| 495,447. 00| 2005| 125. 5| 15,816. 69| 1 0000| 118. 6| 648,574. 00| 2006| 134. 9| 15,963. 81| 12000| 122. 5| 841,011. 00| 2007| 146. 3| 16,126. 20| 11300| 142| 1,254,000. 00| 2008| 179. 6| 16,303. 54| 16320| 215. 2| 1,513,540. 00| 2009| 192| 17,066. 34| 15700| 218. 6| 1,910,590. 00| 2010| 209. | 18,620. 84| 16850| 251. 8| 2,478,310. 00| References BBC, 2007. Vietnam's WTO membership begins. Available online at URL: http://news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/6249705. stm (Accessed May 4, 2012) Binh, N. V. 2009. Di? u hanh chinh sach t? gia nam 2008 va phuong hu? ng nam 2009. 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